all；furry； burrowing beings that bided their time for a very long while as little mammals。 thebiggest of them grew no larger than a house cat； and most were no bigger than mice。
eventually； this would prove their salvation； but they would have to wait nearly 150 millionyears for megadynasty 3； the age of dinosaurs； to e to an abrupt end and make room formegadynasty 4 and our own age of mammals。
each of these massive transformations； as well as many smaller ones between and since；was dependent on that paradoxically important motor of progress： extinction。 it is a curiousfact that on earth species death is； in the most literal sense； a way of life。 no one knows howmany species of organisms have existed since life began。 thirty billion is a monly citedfigure； but the number has been put as high as 4；000 billion。 whatever the actual total； 99。99percent of all species that have ever lived are no longer with us。 鈥渢o a first approximation；鈥潯sdavid raup of the university of chicago likes to say； 鈥渁ll species are extinct。鈥潯or plexorganisms； the average lifespan of a species is only about four million years鈥攔oughly aboutwhere we are now。
extinction is always bad news for the victims； of course； but it appears to be a good thingfor a dynamic planet。 鈥渢he alternative to extinction is stagnation；鈥潯ays ian tattersall of theamerican museum of natural history； 鈥渁nd stagnation is seldom a good thing in any realm。鈥�
（i should perhaps note that we are speaking here of extinction as a natural； long…term process。
extinction brought about by human carelessness is another matter altogether。）crises in earth鈥檚 history are invariably associated with dramatic leaps afterward。 the fall ofthe ediacaran fauna was followed by the creative outburst of the cambrian period。 theordovician extinction of 440 million years ago cleared the oceans of a lot of immobile filterfeeders and； somehow； created conditions that favored darting fish and giant aquatic reptiles。
these in turn were in an ideal position to send colonists onto dry land when another blowoutin the late devonian period gave life another sound shaking。 and so it has gone at scatteredintervals through history。 if most of these events hadn鈥檛 happened just as they did； just whenthey did； we almost certainly wouldn鈥檛 be here now。
earth has seen five major extinction episodes in its time鈥攖he ordovician； devonian；permian； triassic； and cretaceous； in that order鈥攁nd many smaller ones。 the ordovician（440 million years ago） and devonian （365 million） each wiped out about 80 to 85 percent ofspecies。 the triassic （210 million years ago） and cretaceous （65 million years） each wipedout 70 to 75 percent of species。 but the real whopper was the permian extinction of about 245million years ago； which raised the curtain on the long age of the dinosaurs。 in the permian； at least 95 percent of animals known from the fossil record check out； never to return。 evenabout a third of insect species went鈥攖he only occasion on which they were lost en masse。 it isas close as we have ever e to total obliteration。
鈥渋t was； truly； a mass extinction； a carnage of a magnitude that had never troubled the earthbefore；鈥潯ays richard fortey。 the permian event was particularly devastating to sea creatures。
trilobites vanished altogether。 clams and sea urchins nearly went。 virtually all other marineorganisms were staggered。 altogether； on land and in the water； it is thought that earth lost 52percent of its families鈥攖hat鈥檚 the level above genus and below order on the grand scale of life（the subject of the next chapter）鈥攁nd perhaps as many as 96 percent of all its species。 itwould be a long time鈥攁s much as eighty million years by one reckoning鈥攂efore speciestotals recovered。
two points need to be kept in mind。 first； these are all just informed guesses。 estimates forthe number of animal species alive at the end of the permian range from as low as 45；000 toas high as 240；000。 if you don鈥檛 know how many species were alive； you can hardly specifywith conviction the proportion that perished。 moreover； we are talking about the death ofspecies； not individuals。 for individuals the death toll could be much higher鈥攊n many cases；practically total。 the species that survived to the next phase of life鈥檚 lottery almost certainlyowe their existence to a few scarred and limping survivors。
in between the big kill…offs； there have also been many smaller； less well…known extinctionepisodes鈥攖he hemphillian； frasnian； famennian； rancholabrean； and a dozen or so others鈥攚hich were not so devastating to total species numbers； but often critically hit certainpopulations。 grazing animals； including horses； were nearly wiped out in the hemphillianevent about five million years ago。 horses declined to a single species； which appears sosporadically in the fossil record as to suggest that for a time it teetered on the brink ofoblivion。 imagine a human history without horses； without grazing animals。
in nearly every case； for both big extinctions and more modest ones； we have bewilderinglylittle idea of what the cause was。 even after stripping out the more crackpot notions there arestill more theories for what caused the extinction events than there have been events。 at leasttwo dozen potential culprits have been identified as causes or prime contributors： globalwarming； global cooling； changing sea levels； oxygen depletion of the seas （a conditionknown as anoxia）； epidemics； giant leaks of methane gas from the seafloor； meteor and etimpacts； runaway hurricanes of a type known as hypercanes； huge volcanic upwellings；catastrophic solar flares。
this last is a particularly intriguing possibility。 nobody knows how big solar flares can getbecause we have only been watching them since the beginning of the space age； but the sun isa mighty engine and its storms are mensurately enormous。 a typical solar flare鈥攕omething we wouldn鈥檛 even notice on earth鈥攚ill release the energy equivalent of a billionhydrogen bombs and fling into space a hundred billion tons or so of murderous high…energyparticles。 the magnetosphere and atmosphere between them normally swat these back intospace or steer them safely toward the poles （where they produce the earth鈥檚 ely auroras）；but it is thought that an unusually big blast； say a hundred times the typical flare； couldoverwhelm our ethereal defenses。 the light show would be a glorious one； but it would almostcertainly kill a very high proportion of all that basked in its glow。 moreover； and ratherchillingly； according to bruce tsurutani of the nasa jet propulsion laboratory； 鈥渋t wouldleave no trace in history。鈥�
what all this leaves us with； as one researcher has put it； is 鈥渢ons of conjecture and verylittle evidence。鈥潯ooling seems to be associated with at least three of the big extinctionevents鈥攖he ordovician； devonian； and permian鈥攂ut beyond that little is agreed； includingwhether a particular episode happened swiftly or slowly。 scientists can鈥檛 agree； for instance；whether the late devonian extinction鈥攖he event that was followed by vertebrates movingonto the land鈥攈appened over millions of years or thousands of years or in one lively day。
one of the reasons it is so hard to produce convincing explanations for extinctions is that itis so very hard to exterminate life on a grand scale。 as we have seen from the manson impact；you can receive a ferocious blow and still stage a full； if presumably somewhat wobbly；recovery。 so why； out of all the thousands of impacts earth has endured； was the kt event sosingularly devastating？ well； first itwas positively enormous。 it struck with the force of 100million megatons。 such an outburst is not easily imagined； but as james lawrence powell haspointed out； if you exploded one hiroshima…sized bomb for every person alive on earth todayyou would still be about a billion bombs short of the size of the kt impact。 but even thatalone may not have been enough to wipe out 70 percent of earth鈥檚 life； dinosaurs included。
the kt meteor had the additional advantage鈥攁dvantage if you are a mammal； that is鈥攖hat it landed in a shallow sea just ten meters deep； probably at just the right angle； at a timewhe